Tight ore supply and weak tin ingot market vs. macro pressure; the most-traded SHFE tin contract fluctuates at highs, awaiting non-farm payrolls guidance [SMM Tin Midday Review]

In early trading today, the most-traded SHFE tin 2508 contract fluctuated rangebound at high levels. It opened at 269,000 yuan/mt, down 0.11% from the previous night session, with intraday highs reaching 269,980 yuan/mt and lows touching 267,830 yuan/mt. By midday, it settled at 268,460 yuan/mt, narrowing the decline to 0.31%, while open interest remained stable around 30,600 lots. Trading was sluggish as bulls and bears wrestled around the 269,000 yuan/mt threshold, reflecting market caution ahead of the US non-farm payrolls data due tonight and a lack of momentum for directional breakthroughs in the short term.

Overnight, LME tin (3-month) showed weakness, temporarily quoted at $33,600/mt, up $15 (0.04%). The metal faced pressure from macro risk-off sentiment and rising expectations for Myanmar's production resumptions, though low inventory provided floor support, with the $33,000 level acting as a key support.

The spot market saw "high premiums but low turnover." Downstream buyers exhibited strong fear of high prices, with procurement limited to rigid demand. Traders reported daily trading volumes of only about 10 mt, highlighting significant negative feedback from elevated prices.

The US dollar index remained under pressure after US June ADP employment unexpectedly dropped by 33,000, reinforcing expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts. The index fell to the 96 level, offering short-term support for metal prices.

Policy uncertainties intensified, with China's pace of pro-growth measures, the US non-farm payrolls data (released early tonight), and Section 232 tariff developments creating mixed macro headwinds.